Bereitschaftsbeitrag

Zur Front

28. Januar 2024

The Yemeni situation

Yemen has been at war with Saudi Arabia since March 26, 2015, and on April 29, 2015, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz, whose mother was Yemeni, was replaced as crown prince of Saudi Arabia.

Whether there's a causal relation or not, Yemen must assume that the war won't end before Muqrin bin Abdulazi is dead. He's 78, so it may still take a while. In the meantime Yemen has to contend with being attacked with US weapons. So naturally, Yemen's interest is to get its hands on as many and advanced weapons as it can. Since Iran sees itself as the Shi'ite hegemon and the Shi'ite Houthis are an active faction in the Yemeni resistance to Saudi demands, Yemen has been supplied with Iranian weapons for some time.

Until recently, these weapons have been most prominently used to attack the Saudi oil industry, but since Israel's war to re-establish its authority over Gaza, Yemen is using them to attack western shipping lines in the Red Sea, not, however, Saudi shipping lines.

To wit, there's been a Saudi-Iranian agreement under Chinese oversight preceding the Hamas attack that caused Israel's war. Yet the Saudi-Yemeni war is ongoing. Hence this act of generosity on Yemen's part implies one or more of the following possibilities:
  1. Yemen bows to the wishes of a potent supporter.
  2. Yemen considers internal political pressure a more potent weapon against Saudi Arabia in the current situation than military force.
I imagine that Yemen's current use of its weapons makes it an attractive investment opportunity for more than just Iran, and I would be surprised, if the Yemenis wouldn't imagine that themselves, but of course I can't speak as to any actual investors.

Anyway, if the Houthi attacks continue and succeed in impeding western shipping, I'll take that as a sign that Yemen's acquisition scheme worked.

I think Netanyahu's prime poitical objective in the current situation concerns American domestic opinion, I think he's intentionally provoking expressions of Muslim hostility to force Jews worldwide to side with him and in particular in America to support the political right. I also think that he's achieving that goal. But Muslims have been overall very disciplined and signs of open defiance in a larger war against US hegemony emerge. This is not the kind of play that western war planners would angle for. If this is World War III, so far the West is being outmanoeuvred. Usually, when this happens on the battlefield, a forceful counter follows, and Netanyahu tries to lay the organisational foundation for it.

There's no love lost between the Muslims and the Chinese, the current line-up is the result of western overbearingness, based, at the end of the day, on the conviction that all of one's deviations from the natural order are necessary. The issue will come to an end when western institutions come to an end.

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