Causes of Death: Virus vs. Man
Last year, on Adolf Hitler's 131st birthday, I discussed the shape of daily deaths curves caused by transmittable diseases. My statement then, that if it was precisely the derivative of the logistic function there would be no immunisation, while strictly speaking true, was also extremely impractical, since it's never going to be that anyway.
However, it's going to look somewhat like that if a virus or a bacterium or any other self-replicating cause of death has its way.
On the other hand, if man is the cause of death, e.g. death by old age, car accidents, death squads or camps, the number of daily deaths is determined by man's capacity to cause death and that capacity usually doesn't change much in the short term, hence we get more or less constant daily deaths, e.g. the number of people born 75 years ago, a certain percentage of distracted drivers, the daily capacity of crematories.
It is possible that virus and man join forces in such a way as to cause roughly constant daily deaths, that is, as I've discussed in the previous post on the subject, if the virus is allowed to spread in one area, then carried to another, allowed to spread there, then carried to another, allowed to spread there and so on without ever allowing it to spread elsewhere, but this is of course also practically absurd (unless it was a genocidal program and the virus easily containable).
Hence, as it is to be expected, the daily deaths curves of the countries I looked at for the previous post on the subject, i.e. Sweden's, Germany's, India's, the Netherlands', Spain's (similar to the Netherlands'), all showed waves somewhat akin to the derivative of the logistic function.
If, on the other hand, daily deaths would reach a plateau on which they remained for three months, say, every thinking man looking at that data would consider it fishy. Hence this could only happen if all men who should be bothered by such data are either unthinking or in a small enough minority to trust each other to help the common good along, wherein ever that consisted (presumably in defending the Catholic faith against heresies, considering the Catholic faith's tendency to create those precise circumstances, i.e. those required for allowing this kind of charade).
However, it's going to look somewhat like that if a virus or a bacterium or any other self-replicating cause of death has its way.
On the other hand, if man is the cause of death, e.g. death by old age, car accidents, death squads or camps, the number of daily deaths is determined by man's capacity to cause death and that capacity usually doesn't change much in the short term, hence we get more or less constant daily deaths, e.g. the number of people born 75 years ago, a certain percentage of distracted drivers, the daily capacity of crematories.
It is possible that virus and man join forces in such a way as to cause roughly constant daily deaths, that is, as I've discussed in the previous post on the subject, if the virus is allowed to spread in one area, then carried to another, allowed to spread there, then carried to another, allowed to spread there and so on without ever allowing it to spread elsewhere, but this is of course also practically absurd (unless it was a genocidal program and the virus easily containable).
Hence, as it is to be expected, the daily deaths curves of the countries I looked at for the previous post on the subject, i.e. Sweden's, Germany's, India's, the Netherlands', Spain's (similar to the Netherlands'), all showed waves somewhat akin to the derivative of the logistic function.
If, on the other hand, daily deaths would reach a plateau on which they remained for three months, say, every thinking man looking at that data would consider it fishy. Hence this could only happen if all men who should be bothered by such data are either unthinking or in a small enough minority to trust each other to help the common good along, wherein ever that consisted (presumably in defending the Catholic faith against heresies, considering the Catholic faith's tendency to create those precise circumstances, i.e. those required for allowing this kind of charade).
Labels: 29, formalisierung, geschichte, gesetze, institutionen, mathematik, zeitgeschichte, ἰδέα, φιλοσοφία
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