My reading of the military situation in Ukraine
Ukraine is a country without forests or hamlets, it is subdivided into square fields separated by lines of hardwood trees with the population concentrated in the cities.
The Russians have occupied an extended strip without any depth and have turned inwards towards the cities in it and are now engaged in urban warfare.
The Ukrainian forces outnumber the deployed Russian forces by 10:1.
It follows that the Russians have no fear of a Ukrainian counter-offensive whatsoever, either because the Ukrainians lack the weapons to make their numerical superiority count or the will.
There's talk of an escalation of the war. But what would that escalation be? In the light of the above, Russia may have two reasons why it has restricted its operation to south-eastern Ukraine, namely to either limit its deployment or to avoid greater unpopularity both inside and outside Ukraine. These two factors are linked, because greater discrimination on the battlefield requires greater deployment. So, if the Ukrainian side would engage in actions that would increase the acceptance of Russian countermeasures, all it would do is to lift the restrictions on the war inside Ukraine, possibly to the point where the public becomes accepting of a Russian take over of the whole country.
There are no provocations in war. The closest thing to a provocation in war is a gambit. There are only provocations in politics, aimed at the irrationality of the supporters, forcing the leadership to respond, but no general will ever order an attack, because some private stuck out his behind.
The Russians have occupied an extended strip without any depth and have turned inwards towards the cities in it and are now engaged in urban warfare.
The Ukrainian forces outnumber the deployed Russian forces by 10:1.
It follows that the Russians have no fear of a Ukrainian counter-offensive whatsoever, either because the Ukrainians lack the weapons to make their numerical superiority count or the will.
There's talk of an escalation of the war. But what would that escalation be? In the light of the above, Russia may have two reasons why it has restricted its operation to south-eastern Ukraine, namely to either limit its deployment or to avoid greater unpopularity both inside and outside Ukraine. These two factors are linked, because greater discrimination on the battlefield requires greater deployment. So, if the Ukrainian side would engage in actions that would increase the acceptance of Russian countermeasures, all it would do is to lift the restrictions on the war inside Ukraine, possibly to the point where the public becomes accepting of a Russian take over of the whole country.
There are no provocations in war. The closest thing to a provocation in war is a gambit. There are only provocations in politics, aimed at the irrationality of the supporters, forcing the leadership to respond, but no general will ever order an attack, because some private stuck out his behind.
Labels: 33, formalisierung, geschichte, gesetze, sehhilfen, wahrnehmungen, zeitgeschichte, ἰδέα, φιλοσοφία
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